原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.dreamgamesky.com 翻译:squart 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.dreamgamesky.com/bbs/thread-485713-1-1.html



Many analysts believe a US-Israeli war onIran and Lebanon is likely despite the lack of evidence of preparations forsuch a war. Although forces could be quickly mobilized after a politicaldecision to go to war, all indications point to a non-military war situationfor the simple reason that the US “strangulation war” is not costly to the USestablishment and fits perfectly with the objectives of its main Middle Easternally, Israel. Nevertheless, menacing letters are being exchanged among involvedparties who are, nonetheless, prepared for the worst-case scenario.

许多分析人士认为,尽管缺乏准备这场战争的证据,美国-以色列对伊朗和黎巴嫩的战争仍有可能发生,虽然在政治决定发动战争后,军队可以迅速的动员起来,但所有迹象都表明,美国的“经济扼杀战争”对美国来说并不昂贵,而且完全符合其中东主要盟友以色列的目标,因此这是一种非军事战争。有关各方之间正在交换威胁性的信函,尽管如此,他们正在为最坏的情况做准备。

As far as Iran goes, the “zero oil exports”– the US wants to impose on the 1stof May – may be impossible to achieve. Itwill not be easy for OPEC members to compensate the two million Iranian barrelsof oil daily (out of 3.45 million of total daily production), as President DonaldTrump would like.

就伊朗而言,“零石油出口”(美国希望在5月1日强制实施)可能是不可能实现的。欧佩克成员国要像特朗普总统所希望的那样,补偿伊朗退出留下的每天200万桶石油缺口并不容易。

The US objective is to curb Iran’s will andforce it to the negotiation table to dictate elements necessary for thesecurity of Israel in the Middle East. A goal no US establishment has evermanaged to achieve since the “Islamic Revolution” took power in Iran in 1979,notwithstanding the sanctions imposed over four decades.

美国的目标是遏制伊朗,迫使其走上谈判桌,以达到中东地区以色列安全所需的必要条件。自1979年ysl革命之后,尽管对伊朗实施了40多年的制裁,但美国从未实现过这样一个目标。



This US administration, like previous ones,will likely fail to curb Iran’s will despite the severe sanctions it hasimposed. Nor will it succeed in forcing Iran to stop support for its partnersin the Middle East (i.e. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen). Thesupport of Iran to state and non-state actors in the region is a self-imposedobligation cited in many articles in the Iranian constitution.

尽管对伊朗实施了严厉的制裁,但美国政府和以往的政府一样,很可能无法遏制伊朗的意愿。它也不会成功地迫使伊朗停止对其中东伙伴(即黎巴嫩、伊拉克、叙利亚、阿富汗和也门)的支持。伊朗对该地区国家和非国家行动者的支持是伊朗宪法许多条款中的一项义务。