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An escalating “trade war” betweenJapan and South Korea could be good news for China, both economically anddiplomatically, observers say.

观察人士表示,日韩之间不断升级的“贸易战”,在经济和外交上可能对中国都是个好消息。

With Tokyo’s exportrestrictions on South Korean firms likely to prove mutually destructive,Chinese manufacturers could gain a competitive edge, according to analysts,while the souring of relations between two key US allies is likely to leaveBeijing’s diplomats rubbing their hands.

由于日本对韩国企业的出口限制,可能会对两个国家都造成破坏,中国制造商可能会因此获得竞争优势,而美国两个主要盟国之间关系的恶化,可能会让北京的外交官们得到一些休息时间,分析人士表示。



With the tit-for-tat measures compromisingthe tech industries of both countries, experts say Chinese manufacturers – andparticularly the country’s nascent semiconductor industry – would be among thebest placed to fill the void.

由于“针锋相对”的报复措施,会对日韩两国的科技产业造成损害,中国制造商,尤其是中国刚刚起步的半导体产业,将是填补这一空白的最佳选择。

The seeds of the trade row lie in a disputebetween Seoul and Tokyo over the legacy of Japan’s colonial rule overthe Korean peninsula prior to the end of World War II. Tokyo, which believes itsettled all necessary compensation under a treaty signed in 1965, has been angeredby a South Korean court’s recent order that Japanese firms must compensate wartime victimsof forced labour.

日韩贸易争端的根源,在于首尔和东京之间关于二战结束前日本对朝鲜半岛殖民统治遗留问题的争论。东京政府认为,根据1965年签署的一项条约,它已经解决了所有必要的赔偿问题,而韩国法院最近判决,日本公司必须向战时被迫参与劳动的受害者进行赔偿,日本政府对此感到愤怒。

In response, Tokyo has said it will imposeexport restrictions on three materials: fluorinated polyamides, used insmartphones; photoresists, used in semiconductors; and hydrogen fluoride, usedin semiconductors. South Korean firms are heavily reliant on Japan for allthree – in May, the country sourced 94 per cent of fluorinated polyamidesand 92 per cent of photoresists from Japan, according to the KoreaInternational Trade Association.

作为回应,日本政府表示将对三种材料实施出口限制:智能手机中使用的氟化聚酰胺、半导体中使用的光光阻剂、半导体中使用的氟化氢。韩国国际贸易协会的数据显示,韩国公司对这三种材料严重依赖日本—在5月份,韩国94%的氟化聚酰胺和92%的光阻剂是从日本采购的。

However, the reliance isn’t just oneway. Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a visiting professor of the College of Economics andInternational Trade at Pusan National University in South Korea, said the rowbetween Tokyo and Seoul would be mutually destructive.

然而,依赖不仅仅是单边的。韩国釜山国立大学经济与国际贸易学院客座教授山口说,东京和首尔之间的冲突将会导致相互毁灭。

“Japan has been a source of chemicals and manufacturing technologiesthat are vital to South Korean industries, while for Japan, South Korea is avital market for exports,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

“日本一直是韩国工业至关重要的化学品和制造技术的来源国,而对日本来说,韩国是重要的出口市场。”



Analysts say this intense trade battle willultimately benefit Chinese manufacturers.
As a result of its trade war with the US, Chinahas been pushing ahead with the development of its own microchip industry,reducing its industrial reliance on foreign countries.
At the core of that plan is itssemiconductor industry. Under the Made in China 2025 plan, Beijing aims toproduce 40 per cent of the semiconductors it uses by 2020 and 70 per cent by2025 – up from less than 10 per cent at present.

分析人士认为,这场激烈的贸易战最终将惠及中国制造商。
由于与美国的贸易战,中国一直在推动自己的微芯片产业的发展,减少对外国工业的依赖。
该计划的核心是半导体行业,根据中国制造2025计划,中国计划到2020年生产自身所用40%的半导体,到2025年生产70%的半导体,而目前这一比例还不到10%。

Analysts say this aim will be boosted iftensions between Tokyo and Seoul disrupt global supply chains, as Chinese firmswill step in to the vacuum.

分析人士认为,如果东京和首尔之间的紧张局势扰乱了全球供应链,中国的计划将得到助力,因为中国企业将填补日韩的真空。

“If we limit the ongoing trade conflict to a short-term squeeze onthe South Korean semiconductor industry, we can anticipate that if South Korea’sperformance on the global market is restricted, China may seize the opportunityto climb to the top,” Park said. “China certainly has motivations to up its game in the semiconductorindustry … time will tell whether China becomes the sole beneficiary in thisprocess,” Park said.

“如果我们将当前的贸易冲突,限制在对韩国半导体行业的短期施压上,我们可以预计,如果韩国在全球市场的表现受限,中国可能会抓住机会冲上顶峰。”帕克表示:“中国当然有动力在半导体行业提高自己的竞争力……时间会告诉我们,中国是否会成为这一事件的唯一受益者。”

No OLED screens for Japan if trade disputeis ‘pushed to extreme’

如果贸易争端被“推向极端”,日本可能就没有OLED屏幕了。

If China can take advantage of the presenttensions, it would merely be continuing a decades-long jostling of powerbetween the three countries in the semiconductor industry. In the 1990s and2000s, Japan was dominant; from the 2010s South Korea has been in the ascendancy.

如果中国能利用目前的紧张局势,它可能会使得三个国家在半导体行业持续数十年的竞争继续下去。在20世纪90年代和2000年左右,日本在半导体行业占据主导地位,而从2010年起,韩国一直占据主导地位。

“The semiconductor industry is very complex and industry leadershiphas been shifting time and again during the past four decades,” Park said.

帕克说:“半导体行业非常复杂,在过去的40年时间里,行业领导者的位置一次又一次的发生改变。”

And, with both Tokyo and Seoul threateningfurther retaliation, some analysts wonder whether now is China’s time tolead.

而且,由于东京政府和首尔政府都威胁要进一步进行报复,一些分析人士怀疑,现在是否到了中国领头的时候了。



“Japan and South Korea have been in a state of diplomatic paralysisfor a long time. However, the deterioration of economic relations between thetwo would not only cause economic problems on both sides – it would[plunge] bilateral ties to a whole new [low],” Hinata-Yamaguchisaid.

日本和韩国长期处于外交瘫痪的状态,然而,两国经济关系的恶化不仅会对双方造成经济问题,而且会使双边关系陷入一个全新的低谷。

“Given the collateral economic damage and risk of the situationworsening, it is vital for the two governments to restore relations. Yet giventhe myriad, politicised problems that have plagued the relations, bothgovernments will need to take bold measures to salvage the strategicallyimportant bilateral ties.

“鉴于附带的经济损失和局势恶化的风险,两国政府恢复关系至关重要。然而,由于困扰两国关系的无数政治问题,两国政府都需要采取大胆措施,挽救具有战略意义的双边关系。

“At the end of the day, how much China benefits from the conflictbetween Japan and South Korea depends on how much worse relations get,”Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

“说到底,中国能从日韩冲突中获益多少,取决于两国关系恶化的程度。”